The new reality for universities: Diversify or perish

The entire global playing field is being rewritten.

It’s no secret that the environment for international recruitment has become significantly more challenging. As Studyportals’ recent Global Enrolment Benchmark Survey found, institutions are contending with growing uncertainty, tightened migration policies, budget constraints, shifting student preferences, and heightened competition.

But here’s what many don’t realize: we’re not just facing tougher conditions in familiar markets. The entire global playing field is being rewritten.

Student demand is shifting away from Australia, Canada, UK, and US

Drawing upon data from over 51 million global users in 2024, Studyportals data identifies a clear trend: demand for the traditional “Big Four” study destinations—Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US—is no longer growing at the same rate as demand for other countries. And this demand gap is continuing to widen.

Our data, alongside reports from others in the sector, shows that students in Asia are increasingly considering options closer to home. Many emerging study destinations across Asia are capitalising on this shift. They’re stepping up to become regional, and even global, education hubs with strong academic programs, more affordable tuition and living costs, and increasingly, English-taught degrees that appeal to international students.

We’re entering the “Asian Decade” in higher education

Countries like Japan, China, India, Malaysia, and South Korea are actively investing in internationalisation strategies, streamlining visa processes, offering scholarships, and introducing policies aimed at filling skill gaps through education.

Japan has seen strong year-on-year growth in student demand from countries like Bangladesh (23.2%) and Nigeria (19.7%). China, traditionally a major source market, is now attracting significant interest as a destinations, especially from Southeast Asian students, with demand from Vietnam up 42.2% and Indonesia up 40.7%. India is also ramping up efforts, with government support for universities to expand global reach and welcome more international students.

These shifts are more than just trends. They represent a structural change in where students see value, safety, and opportunity.

Diversification is no longer optional—it’s essential

For institutions in Australia and other traditional markets, the message is clear: diversification is essential. In fact, diversifying into new source markets was identified as the most widely anticipated strategy across surveyed institutions.

But many institutions misunderstand what true diversification means. As Edwin van Rest (CEO of Studyportals) notes:

I always laugh—sometimes institutions say, oh, we have a very focused marketing strategy. We have only five target countries. It’s India, China, Brazil, Indonesia, and Nigeria. Yeah. That’s half the world population.

Real diversification requires going deeper. One answer lies in data-driven decision-making. By using real-time global student demand data, institutions can make smarter choices about which markets to enter, which programs to promote, and which student segments to prioritise. Data helps answer the critical questions: Who are our students? Where are they coming from? What are they looking for?

This granular approach is crucial because, as Edwin van Rest explains:

Countries are diverse in itself. The difference between one neighborhood in Mumbai versus another neighborhood in Punjab, the differences are bigger than the difference between Indian students and Swiss students.

Understanding these nuances is what separates successful diversification from simply casting a wider net.

There’s also growing interest in alternative delivery models, particularly transnational education (TNE). When delivered well, TNE offers students greater flexibility and affordability while allowing institutions to scale globally without major investment in physical infrastructure. But again, data is key. Understanding what students want, how they prefer to study, and which markets are ready for new models is crucial.

The future belongs to institutions that think beyond borders

Global competition for students isn’t just intensifying; it’s being redefined. Institutions that cling to legacy models and known markets may find themselves falling behind. Those that embrace change, prioritise market intelligence, and invest in innovation will uncover new opportunities for sustainable growth.

As we navigate this disruption, one thing is clear: the future of international education lies beyond borders: geographical, strategic, and conceptual. The question isn’t whether this shift will continue, but whether your institution will adapt quickly enough to thrive in this new reality.