5 realities universities must understand in 2026

Over 1,100 people from 60 countries signed up to our webinar on global enrolment trends last year. That number alone tells you how urgent this moment is for international education.

We brought together Joann Ng Hartmann from NAFSA, Andrew Nye from Oxford University Press, and Edwin van Rest from Studyportals to discuss findings from the Global Enrolment Benchmark Survey. The survey gathered data from 461 universities across 63 countries about their August-October 2024 intake.

The conversation was honest. Sometimes uncomfortable. But necessary.

Here’s what they said matters for 2026.

1. Canada and the US are losing students fast, and it’s policy-driven

The numbers from North America were stark.

In Canada: 82% of universities reported lower undergraduate enrolment. 71% lost postgraduate students. Overall, undergraduate enrolment dropped 36% and postgraduate dropped 35%.

This is the third intake in a row showing major declines.

Edwin van Rest didn’t sugarcoat it: “If you look at the study approvals in Canada, it’s more than 75% down from where it was two years ago. That’s devastating.”

In the US: Nearly half of universities saw undergraduate enrolment drop (average decline: 6%). Almost two-thirds lost postgraduate students (average decline: 19%). The research-intensive R1 institutions were hit even harder.

Joann Ng Hartmann from NAFSA pointed to recent data: “The decline at the master’s level, 17% drop in new enrolments according to IIE data, that’s a red flag for me.”

But she was quick to add context: “Demand isn’t falling. We will have more globally mobile students in the next year, few years, decade. This is a direct result of regulatory policy from governments.”

Meanwhile, other parts of the world are growing. Asian countries saw 8% growth in undergraduate enrolment. European countries saw postgraduate enrolment up 5%. The UK was up about 3% for both levels.

2. Students are looking East instead of West

Studyportals tracks about 50 million students each year as they search for programmes. The platform shows where student interest is actually going, and it’s shifting dramatically.

Since 2021:

• Interest in European programmes: up 17.5%
• Interest in Asian programmes: up 62%
• Interest in the “Big Four” destinations (US, UK, Canada, Australia): down 27%

Edwin explained what’s driving this: “The tables are turning. It’s not that there’s less interest globally. It’s really driven by massive restrictive government policy in those key destinations.”

The webinar showed data on another factor: there’s been a huge spike in English-taught programmes across Asia. Students can now get quality education in English in Malaysia, South Korea, Singapore, and Japan without dealing with Western visa uncertainty.

Because students search for programmes 12 to 18 months before enrolling, this data predicts what enrolment numbers will look like in 2025 and 2026. The US trend line keeps going down. The UK is trending up. Canada and Australia are showing some positive signs.

3. Visa policies are the number one obstacle (and getting worse)

When asked what obstacles universities faced this year, one issue dominated: visa problems.

68% of institutions globally now say restrictive government policies and visa problems are a significant issue. That’s up from 51% last year.

In the US, the number jumped to 85%, up from 58% just a year ago.

Andrew Nye from Oxford University Press emphasised how this affects students: “The sector is highly exposed to visa policy changes, not just in one country, but across all major English-speaking markets simultaneously.”

Joann talked about what’s on NAFSA’s radar for US institutions: “The duration of status proposed rule, we are anticipating the finalisation quite soon. And optional practical training, the threat to it. Those two are highly followed because they do have a direct impact.”

Other major obstacles universities reported:

• Affordability: 72% of UK institutions say tuition and living costs are a problem (up from 58% last year)
• Housing shortages: affects 1 in 5 institutions globally, 1 in 3 in Asia and Europe
• Meeting English proficiency requirements: 15% of European institutions

Edwin noted: “The survey confirmed that fees and costs are already the number one obstacle for the UK, but the government still plans to charge £925 per international student per year as a levy.”

He added: “The UK is already a very expensive destination if you consider the recent currency developments. We are not so positive about next year if the UK will show growth in the fall intake.”

4. The universities doing well diversified years ago

When asked what separates universities with growing enrolment from those struggling, Edwin was direct:

“Universities that have early on invested in diversity, diversity in offering, diversity in where they’re attracting students from, we see that’s now really paying off in a big way.”

You can’t scramble to diversify when a policy changes overnight. The universities maintaining stable enrolment right now started building relationships in Vietnam, Nigeria, Latin America, and Southeast Asia 2 to 3 years ago.

Andrew Nye reinforced this point: “International enrolment is no longer guaranteed. Institutions are having to move from a mindset of growth by default to one of diversification and risk management.”

Joann added what she’s seeing from US institutions: “I’m heartened by the fact that survey data shows institutions aren’t backing down. Now’s not the time to back down. Institutions are looking to be resilient and committed to recruitment, but perhaps shifting their strategy in different markets.”

What emerging markets are doing:

Joann highlighted Asian countries making strategic investments: “South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, these are the four that come to mind that have had in recent years new policies that are more attractive for students to stay on. Some have met or exceeded their target goals years ahead of time.”

Edwin shared examples of ambitious growth plans:

• Dubai wants 50% growth
• Turkey aims for 1 million international students by 2030 (currently 300,000)
• Many countries in Asia and the Middle East charge international students less than domestic students

Edwin’s take: “Asia, Middle East, they have long term plans, they dare to invest, they understand the importance of flows. We will see strong growth.”

5. This isn’t temporary. It’s a structural shift

All three panelists agreed: don’t wait for things to go back to normal.

Andrew was clear: “This is not just a short-term dip. This is a deeper structural shift driven by policy volatility and evolving student priorities. Student needs are changing.”

Edwin’s advice for thinking about diversification differently:

“The difference between one neighborhood in Mumbai and another neighborhood somewhere else in India can be bigger than the difference between Switzerland and Ghana.”

His point: Stop thinking in countries. Think in students.

“Don’t let country borders be your primary marketing denominator. You need to look for best-fit students. What’s their education background, what are their financial means, what are their dreams and goals.”

He warned against a common mistake: “We now see a lot of institutions completely excluding certain countries because on average the visa success rate from that country isn’t good. You are limiting a whole big talent flow. Try to invest in finding the needles in that haystack that still are fantastic for your institution and will have a good chance of getting a visa.”

What universities should do in 2026

We asked each panelist for their one message to universities for the year ahead.

Andrew Nye: “Be more adaptable than the disruption you’re facing. Let go of old assumptions. Make decisions based on real-time data, not legacy patterns of what’s happened previously. Stay close to what students actually value.”

Joann Ng Hartmann: “Agility, flexibility, thinking outside the box, these all sound really cool, but what does that actually mean for your institution? More than ever, take a whole-of-campus approach. Not being siloed, but serving the students and your community. What does rewriting the playbook look like for you and your institution? Listen to the students who are applying and what their needs are. Monitor what others are doing, what country shifts are happening.”

Edwin van Rest: “Be proud. Keep doing the right thing. Be values-driven. Don’t just think beyond the cycle, think long term. It’s a lot harder for a couple of years. But it’s only a couple of years in the perhaps 400-year history of your institution. Stick to your values and consistently deliver. That will pay off.”

Why this matters beyond enrolment

Edwin put the stakes in perspective with some data points:

“What do Microsoft, Google, Starbucks, IBM, and Adobe have in common? They all have an Indian CEO that came to the US for a master’s degree.”

He continued: “Twenty-five percent of larger AI startups that raised a lot of funding were started by international students. Seventy-five percent of STEM graduate students in the US are international.”

His conclusion: “I can’t imagine that on the long run, the US can do without that talent flow. It will come back. Otherwise it’s going to be too hurtful for those students, but also for US competitiveness ultimately.”

One more insight: predictability matters more than perfection

When asked what countries can do to help, Andrew made an important point:

“Predictability doesn’t have to mean locking everything down. It means making the rules clear and consistent and communicated well in advance. What students and institutions are struggling with is not just change. It’s the speed and the unpredictability of the change, particularly around visas and work rights.”

He added: “If countries want to remain competitive, they’ve got to provide stable long-term frameworks for international education. They’ve got to involve the sector in meaningful consultation before they make changes. Above all, they’ve got to communicate clearly to institutions, to agents, and to students.”

Joann agreed, speaking from a parent’s perspective: “As a mum, would you want to send your son or daughter to a place that you don’t really know what’s going to happen next? The fear and uncertainty, especially when you’re making life decisions for a young student. It’s an investment from the family.”

The bottom line

Despite all the challenges, 40% of universities worldwide say diversifying into new markets is very likely over the next year. It was the number one strategy in Canada, Europe, the US, and the UK.

Universities are also exploring transnational education. Edwin noted: “We are seeing quite a lot of institutions that are going into transnational education for multiple reasons. One of the things is to be less exposed, to be less dependent on the immigration structure of their host country.”

But success requires starting early, listening to students, and staying true to institutional values even when enrolment drops.

The Global Enrolment Benchmark Survey helps institutions see their position versus peer institutions and understand what strategies similar universities are prioritising. The next survey opens soon. Register your interest to access detailed benchmark data tailored to your institution.

Questions or feedback? Reach out at hello@studyportals.com.