Only 9% of universities are very confident international education is still cyclical
Findings come from a live audience poll conducted during the webinar Global Enrolment Trends: The Strategies Driving Enrolment in Challenging Times, with NAFSA and Oxford Test of English. Over 150 audience members from across the sector participated in the polls.
We asked during our recent webinar how confident universities were that international education is still cyclical — that downturns are reliably followed by recovery,
Only 9% of the universities in the room said they were very confident International education remains cyclical and that downturns will be followed by recovery.
Confidence also varied sharply by market. Just 3% of UK institutions and 6% of US institutions were very confident in the cyclical pattern, compared with 12% of institutions in continental Europe. This gap that mirrors where the policy pressure is currently concentrated.
Outlook for the US: short-term decline, long-term uncertainty
The near-term picture from US respondents was close to unanimous: 88% expect enrolments to be lower in the fall intake, with virtually no one (1%) expecting growth.
In the long-term, 74% of respondents expect year-on-year enrolment growth later than 2028. 8% don’t expect a recovery.
As Joann Ng Hartmann of NAFSA put it during the webinar:
“We need an answer that says ‘post this administration.'”
US universities have flagged government restrictions and visa issues as a significant issue weighing on enrolments.
Outlook for the UK: Universities brace for 10- 20% enrolment drop
74% of institutions polled expect enrolments in the UK to decline in the fall intake, with only 14% anticipating growth. Even more telling is the expected magnitude: the largest share of respondents (35%) foresee 10–20% declines. This suggests the sector is preparing for a meaningful downturn. The outlook reflects a combination of policy tightening and demand sensitivity, with institutions already adjusting expectations for the upcoming intake.
Edwin van Rest, CEO of Studyportals says:
I have to agree with the wisdom of the crowd here that the 10 to 20% decline is the most likely scenario for the UK for the fall intake, and that’s a serious drop for a big market that already is in a challenging financial environment.
Outlook for Canada: No recovery in the short-term
31% of global universities polled expect growth to return to Canada by 2028, and 40% only after 2028. Edwin van Rest told the webinar that he expects an earlier recovery in 2027, partly because demand is recovering, and partly because commencements are now so low they are hard to push lower.
At the same time, 12% do not expect a recovery at all,.That is a minority view, but it signals genuine structural concern
The sector is no longer betting on an automatic rebound
What has changed is the nature of the downturn itself. Previous contractions were driven by external shocks like a financial crisis, or a pandemic ,after which underlying demand reasserted itself.
Today’s declines are policy-made, concentrated across the major English-speaking destinations at the same time, and tied to political cycles rather than economic ones. Recovery, when it comes, will depend less on demand returning and more on governments deciding to let it in.
